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EvidenceEconomy and development254State and governance188Foreign policy61Society and history186Chains and maps30Quotes6Today’s news

Economy, growth and trade 86

Tax-to-GDP reform target: Government targeted tax-to-GDP ratio to rise from 10.2% to 11% in the fiscal year and toward 13% in coming years (2025-26)Ministry of FinanceStructural-reform output effect: IMF staff analysis estimated comprehensive structural reforms could raise near-term output by up to 3.5% and medium-term output by almost 6% (2026)IMF Pakistan staff reportAgriculture tax-effort gap: Agriculture accounted for about 24.6% of value added while IMF estimated its effective tax rate at around 0.3% (FY2025 / 2026 IMF analysis)IMF Pakistan staff reportAgriculture was about 24.6% of value added while its effective tax rate was around 0.3% in the cited IMF assessment. (2026)IMFTotal tax revenue including provincial taxes and PDL reached 12.3% of GDP in FY2025. (FY2025)IMFIMF/World Bank research identifies roughly 15% of GDP in tax revenue as an important state-capacity reference threshold, (2026)IMF/World BankPakistan's 12.3% FY2025 tax ratio was roughly 2.7 percentage points below the 15% reference threshold. (FY2025)IMFBy 2018 about three-quarters of households earned some non-agricultural labour income. (2018)World BankMuch labour shift was into low-productivity construction, trade, transport and other services. (2025)World BankCurrent-account surplus US$72m during Jul-Mar FY2026. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Pakistan Economic SurveyGoods exports ~US$22.7bn during Jul-Mar FY2026. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Pakistan Economic SurveyGoods imports ~US$50.7bn during Jul-Mar FY2026. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Pakistan Economic SurveyWorker remittances ~US$30.3bn during Jul-Mar FY2026. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Pakistan Economic SurveyNine-month remittances were roughly one-third larger than goods exports. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Derived from PESSBP FX reserves ~US$17.1bn on 15 May 2026; commercial banks another US$5.5bn. (15 May 2026)Pakistan Economic SurveyPakistan exports-to-GDP declined from historical peak ~16% to below 10% over World Bank study period.World BankFirms about to become exporters were 26% more productive than firms that never exported in World Bank analysis.World BankSystematic exporters were another 21% more productive than latent exporters after controls.World BankForeign-owned firms were about 46% more productive than comparable domestic firms in cited analysis.World BankShare of listed Pakistani firms exporting fell ~60% to 51% over examined decade.World BankAmong exporting listed firms, exports' share of sales fell ~31% to 27%.World BankCurrent IMF EFF approval: 37-month EFF approved 25 Sep 2024 (2024)IMFVerifiedCurrent IMF EFF size: SDR 5.32bn (~US$7bn at approval) (2024)IMFVerifiedIMF RSF: 28-month RSF, SDR1bn (Approved May 2025)IMFVerified

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